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Show do trilhão no RGPS? Quantificando os aspectos fiscais e distributivos da reforma da previdência do governo Bolsonaro

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  • Afonso, Luís Eduardo
  • Carvalho, João Vinícius França

Abstract

Este trabalho calcula os impactos fiscais e distributivos no RGPS, originados da proposta de reforma previdenciária do governo Bolsonaro. Emprega-se um modelo de microssimulação que calcula as contribuições e os benefícios de aposentadoria e pensão. As despesas passariam de R$ 13,42 trilhões para R$ 10,59 trilhões em três décadas. O passivo previdenciário líquido cairia de R$ 5,99 trilhões para R$ 3,43 trilhões. As Taxas de Reposição cairiam de 73,99% para 67,65%. As Alíquotas Necessárias iriam de 42,70% para 32,87%. As Taxas Internas de Retorno reduziriam de 2,37% para -1,00%. A Duração Média das Aposentadorias cairia de 19,45 para 16,46 anos.

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, Luís Eduardo & Carvalho, João Vinícius França, 2021. "Show do trilhão no RGPS? Quantificando os aspectos fiscais e distributivos da reforma da previdência do governo Bolsonaro," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 75(2), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:75:y:2021:i:2:a:80203
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