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Uma Calibragem do Modelo de Krugman-Flood-Garber para o Caso Brasileiro

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  • Araujo, Aloisio Pessoa
  • Brisola, Tomás

Abstract

Neste trabalho, utilizamos a metodologia de ataque especulativo de Salant, Flood e Garber e Krugman para analisar o câmbio fixo adotado no Brasil após o Plano Real. A partir desse modelo e da frágil situação fiscal brasileira na época, uma vez que o ajuste fiscal não foi feito plenamente, chegamos à conclusão de que era altamente provável um ataque especulativo no Brasil antes das eleições de outubro de 1998. Nossa calibragem serviu de base para entrevistas em anexo. Consolidando nossas previsões, o ataque especulativo ocorreu em setembro de 1998.

Suggested Citation

  • Araujo, Aloisio Pessoa & Brisola, Tomás, 2019. "Uma Calibragem do Modelo de Krugman-Flood-Garber para o Caso Brasileiro," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 73(4), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:73:y:2019:i:4:a:77149
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