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Estrategias dinámicas de cobertura cruzada eficiente para el mercado del petróleo mexicano: Evidencia de dos modelos GARCH multivariados con término de corrección de error

Author

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  • Raúl De Jesús Gutiérrez.

    (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México.)

Abstract

Este trabajo amplía los modelos de correlación condicional dinámica de Engle y de Tse y Tsui al incorporar términos de corrección de error en el diseño de estrategias de cobertura cruzada dinámicas de varianza mínima para el petróleo mexicano. Respecto a la reducción del riesgo, la evidencia empírica confirma el desempeño superior del modelo MGARCH-CCD de Engle cuando se utiliza el mercado de futuros del WTI como mecanismo de cobertura, en particular para los crudos Olmeca e Istmo. Los hallazgos tienen importantes implicaciones económicos-financieras para gobierno y consumidores, debido a la eficiencia y transparencia de las coberturas cruzadas implementadas para reducir el riesgo de bajos precios.

Suggested Citation

  • Raúl De Jesús Gutiérrez., 2016. "Estrategias dinámicas de cobertura cruzada eficiente para el mercado del petróleo mexicano: Evidencia de dos modelos GARCH multivariados con término de corrección de error," Economía: teoría y práctica, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México, vol. 44(1), pages 115-146, Enero-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:ety:journl:v:44:y:2016:i:1:p:115-146
    DOI: 10.24275/ETYPUAM/NE/442016/DeJesus
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    modelos MGARCH-CCD con término de corrección de error; razón de cobertura cruzada óptima; índice eficiente de cobertura; mercados de futuros petroleros.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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