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Determinantes de los precios reales del petróleo y su impacto sobre las principales variables macroeconómicas: EU, España, Noruega y Argentina

Author

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  • Luis N. Lanteri

    (Investigador independiente, Argentina)

Abstract

En este trabajo se analizan los principales determinantes macroeconómicos de los precios reales del petróleo (crecimiento mundial, política monetaria, tipo de cambio del dólar). Asimismo, se evalúan empíricamente el impacto de los cambios en los precios del petróleo sobre la actividad económica, el empleo y los precios domésticos en algunos países importadores netos (Estados Unidos y España), exportadores (Noruega) y autosuficientes en materia petrolífera (Argentina). El trabajo emplea modelos SVAR, con restricciones de corto plazo, para un periodo que abarca las últimas cuatro décadas. Los resultados muestran que, para los países importadores, los efectos de los incrementos de precios sobre el crecimiento del PIB real y el empleo difieren de los efectos que generan las caídas de los precios del crudo.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis N. Lanteri, 2014. "Determinantes de los precios reales del petróleo y su impacto sobre las principales variables macroeconómicas: EU, España, Noruega y Argentina," Economía: teoría y práctica, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México, vol. 41(2), pages 45-70, Julio-Dic.
    • Handle: RePEc:ety:journl:v:41:y:2014:i:2:p:45-70
    DOI: 10.24275/ETYPUAM/NE/412014/Lanteri
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    precios reales del petróleo; determinantes macroeconómicos; actividad económica y empleo; SVAR; modelos no lineales.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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