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Effect of Uncertain Fiscal Policy on Consumption: A Case in Japan (in Japanese)

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  • Masao Tsuri

Abstract

This paper investigates effects of fiscal uncertainty on private consumption. Discretionary fiscal policy has been adopted frequently especially in 1990s in Japan, but it has not always been consistent. Indices of fiscal uncertainty are estimated from variances of actual expenditures, consistency in economic policy, and feasibility of budgets. The extended precautionary savings model explains that fiscal uncertainty deters current consumption. Empirical analysis finds negative effects of fiscal uncertainty. Especially, variances of actual expenditure induce significant effects in case of Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • Masao Tsuri, 2005. "Effect of Uncertain Fiscal Policy on Consumption: A Case in Japan (in Japanese)," Economic Analysis, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 176, pages 44-63, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:esj:esriea:176c
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    File URL: http://www.esri.go.jp/jp/archive/bun/bun176/bun176g.pdf
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