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Pronóstico a corto y mediano plazo del producto interno bruto trimestral de México

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Ruiz Ramírez
  • Gabriela E. Hernández Rodríguez
  • Bertha Alicia Arce Castro

Abstract

Los métodos de pronóstico de variables económicas se utilizan en la planeación para tomar decisiones sobre el futuro inmediato de la economía de un país. Sin embargo, se debe ponderar la rapidez y oportunidad, así como el desconocimiento de la precisión del valor pronosticado a corto y mediano plazo del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) trimestral, el cual es publicado 42 días después del periodo que informa, afectando la toma de decisiones económicas en México; por lo que se plantea generar y evaluar un modelo de Series de Tiempo para el pronóstico del PIB real nacional trimestral inmediato y mediato de manera oportuna y confiable. Con el software STATISTICA se generó la base de datos del PIB trimestral a precio de mercado, la serie de tiempo comprendió del primer trimestre de 1993 hasta el primer trimestre de 2010, y se utilizó para pronosticar el PIB nacional de los trimestres de 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Ruiz Ramírez & Gabriela E. Hernández Rodríguez & Bertha Alicia Arce Castro, 2011. "Pronóstico a corto y mediano plazo del producto interno bruto trimestral de México," Observatorio de la Economía Latinoamericana, Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL. Hasta 31/12/2022, issue 149, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:erv:observ:y:2011:i:149:5
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