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Productividad y tamaño óptimo del gobierno en México (1930-1998)

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  • Román E. Romero Villarreal
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    Abstract

    La “regla de Barro” para el tamaño óptimo del gobierno, es decir, el modelo de Barro-Karras para analizar la productividad del gobierno en el caso de México, se detectó un cambio estructural en las ecuaciones empleadas para la estimación; el período de 1930-1998 fue dividido en tres subperíodos: 1930-1964, 1965-1979 y 1980-1998. La productividad marginal de los gastos y servicios del gobierno es cero para los períodos de 1930-1964 y 1980-1998, y es positiva para el período de 19651979. En contraste, la productividad marginal del capital es positiva en todo el período. Adicionalmente, se obtuvo que la productividad marginal del gasto del sector público no depende del tamaño del gobierno en el período de 1930-1979. Sin embargo, para los años de 1980-1998 hay una relación negativa que implica que al aumentar el tamaño del gobierno, la productividad del gasto disminuye. Con respecto al tamaño óptimo del gobierno, el modelo sugiere un 11.49% para el período de 1930-1964, un 8.37% para el período de 1965-1979 y un 13.85% para 1980-1998.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia in its journal Ensayos Revista de Economia.

    Volume (Year): XIX (2000)
    Issue (Month): 2 (November)
    Pages: 69-84

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    Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xix:y:2000:i:2:p:69-84

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