The bioeconomics of planetary energy transitions—a theoretical note

Evidence is mounting that unprecedented economic growth experienced by human societies over the past two centuries has induced a state of crisis for the Earth’s ecological systems—a crisis that threatens human society’s existence and heightens the risk of violent conflict. This article presents a simplified model of bioenergetic evolution on a planetary level. It examines human energy exploitation based on three strategies concerning the natural world: (1) predation, (2) competition, and, more cursorily, (3) mutualism. Predation involves the capture of energy pre-processed by the biotic community (living organisms sharing a common environment). Competition involves appropriating lands to capture solar-generated energy, edging the biotic community out. Mutualism involves engaging the biotic community in a mutualistic effort to harvest energy (and discard energy waste in the form of heat) outside of the planetary system. The model implies that, theoretically, substantial government investment in Earth-based solar generation may be required to effect a planetary energy transition to avert ecological collapse. The model suggests that this transition is not likely to happen automatically as a function of substitution by individual economic actors prior to ecological collapse; rather, it requires top-down coercive and/or incentive measures applied by government.