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Modeling long-term memory effect in stock prices: A comparative analysis with GPH test and Daubechies wavelets

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Author Info
Alper Ozun
Atilla Cifter

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Abstract

Purpose – This paper, using Turkish stock index data, set outs to present long-term memory effect using chaotic and conventional unit root tests and investigate if chaotic technique as wavelets captures long-memory better than conventional techniques. Design/methodology/approach – Haar and Daubechies as wavelet-based OLS estimator and GPH and other classical models are applied in order to investigate the performance of long memory in the time series. Findings – The results indicate that Daubechies wavelet analysis provide the accurate determination for long memory where conventional techniques does not. Originality/value – The research results have both methodological and practical originality. On the theoretical side, the wavelet-based OLS estimator is superior in modeling the behaviours of the stock returns in emerging markets where non-linearities and high volatility exist due to their chaotic natures. For practical aims, on the other hand, the results show that the Istanbul Stock Exchange is not in the weak-form efficient because the prices have memories that are not reflected in the prices, yet.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Studies in Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 25 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 38-48
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Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:25:y:2008:i:1:p:38-48

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Related research
Keywords: Economic cycles; Emerging markets; Stock prices; Turkey;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jensen, Mark J., 2000. "An alternative maximum likelihood estimator of long-memory processes using compactly supported wavelets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 361-387, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Patrick Crowley, 2005. "An intuitive guide to wavelets for economists," Econometrics 0503017, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Christoph Schleicher, 2002. "An Introduction to Wavelets for Economists," Working Papers 02-3, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nason, G.P. & von Sachs, R., 1999. "Wavelets in Time Series Analysis," Papers 9901, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
  5. repec:bep:sndecm:5:2001:1:1068-1068 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Sowell, Fallaw, 1990. "The Fractional Unit Root Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 495-505, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 1996. "Long Term Dependence in Stock Returns," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 314., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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