IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/sefpps/sef-11-2021-0488.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can COVID-19 deaths and confirmed cases predict the uncertainty indexes? A multiscale analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Walid Mensi
  • Vinh Xuan Vo
  • Sang Hoon Kang

Abstract

Purpose - This study aims to examine the multiscale predictability power of COVID-19 deaths and confirmed cases on the S&P 500 index (USA), CAC30 index (France), BSE index (India), two strategic commodity futures (West Texas intermediate [WTI] crude oil and Gold) and five main uncertainty indices Equity Market Volatility Ticker (EMV), CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), US Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) and CBOE ETF Gold Volatility Index (GVZ). Furthermore, the authors analyze the impact of uncertainty indices and COVID-19 deaths and confirmed cases on the price returns of stocks (S&P500, CAC300 and BSE), crude oil and gold. Design/methodology/approach - The authors used the wavelet coherency method and quantile regression approach to achieve the objectives. Findings - The results show strong multiscale comovements between the variables under investigation. Lead-lag relationships vary across frequencies. Finally, COVID-19 news is a powerful predictor of the uncertainty indices at intermediate (4–16 days) and low (32–64 days) frequencies for EPU and at low frequency for EMV, VIX, OVX and GVZ indices from January to April 2020. The S&P500, CAC30 and BSE indexes and gold prices comove with COVID-19 news at low frequencies during the sample period. By contrast, COVID-19 news and WTI oil moderately correlated at low frequencies. Finally, the returns on equity and commodity assets are influenced by uncertainty indices and are sensitive to market conditions. Originality/value - This study contributes to the literature by exploring the time and frequency dependence between COVID-19 news (confirmed and death cases) on the returns of financial and commodity markets and uncertainty indexes. The findings can assist market participants and policymakers in considering the predictability of future prices and uncertainty over time and across frequencies when setting up regulations that aim to enhance market efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Walid Mensi & Vinh Xuan Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2023. "Can COVID-19 deaths and confirmed cases predict the uncertainty indexes? A multiscale analysis," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(3), pages 569-587, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:sef-11-2021-0488
    DOI: 10.1108/SEF-11-2021-0488
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/SEF-11-2021-0488/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/SEF-11-2021-0488/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/SEF-11-2021-0488?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Uncertainty index; Confirmed cases; Predictability; Deaths; G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:sef-11-2021-0488. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.