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Exchange rate risk and the bilateral trade between Malaysia and Singapore

Author

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  • Muhammad Aftab
  • Ijaz Ur Rehman

Abstract

Purpose - This paper aims to examine the influence of exchange rate risk on the bilateral trade of two closely connected East Asian open economies – Malaysia and Singapore – at industry level. Design/methodology/approach - This study estimates import and export demand models considering 65 import and 65 export industries of Malaysia, with Singapore using monthly data over the period 2000-2014. Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is used to measure the exchange rate risk, and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration is used to examine the study empirical models. Findings - The findings suggest that exchange risk has an impact on a moderate number of industries in the short run; however, this influence endures in very few industries in the long run. It is interesting to note that exchange rate volatility expedites import demand for the large Malaysian import industries like gas and plastic. Originality/value - No prior study has explored the topic at industry level focusing on the bilateral trade flows between Malaysia and Singapore. This research serves important implications while thinking about exchange rate risk and trade linkage in a case of open economies trade pairs that are highly integrated in presence of a variety of bilateral trade agreements and economic groupings.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Aftab & Ijaz Ur Rehman, 2017. "Exchange rate risk and the bilateral trade between Malaysia and Singapore," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 407-426, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:sef-08-2015-0188
    DOI: 10.1108/SEF-08-2015-0188
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Abubakar, Fahrurrazi & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Palm oil export : is it price led or exchange rate led? evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 111229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Muhammad Aftab & Abid Ali & Scott W. Hegerty, 2021. "Foreign exchange market pressure and stock market dynamics in emerging Asia," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 699-719, October.

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