Do you have a naïve forecasting model of the future?

Purpose - This paper addresses the increasingly rapid and disruptive changes caused by technology innovations impacting commercial real estate (CRE) and how leaders in today's CRE business environment can better anticipate, and even experiment with, disruptive technologies while maintaining current business assets and practices. Design/methodology/approach - This qualitative research is based in systems theory, through which the impact of disruptive technology innovation cycles on business models is described for tactical and strategic utility. Findings - The advent of the fourth industrial revolution (Industry 4.0) is characterized by a convergence of multiple technological innovations including artificial intelligence, the Internet of things, smart buildings, autonomous agents, and automated decision-making. Industry 4.0 promises a future of discontinuities and disruptive innovation superseding the deployment of digital technologies enabled by Industry 3.0. Ambidextrous leaders need to maintain two concurrent foci: one on the current CRE business environment for incremental improvements and one on new opportunities made possible by the next technology innovation cycle. Practical implications - By anticipating the inflection points of nonlinear technology adoption cycles, CRE leaders can reduce risks and increase innovative opportunities as participants in the next disruptive cycle rather than falling victim to it. Originality/value - This work examines CRE market disruptions caused by technology innovation cycles through the lens of systems theory. A connection is made between the nonlinear nature of technology disruption cycles within the CRE business environment and how CRE leadership can better anticipate and prepare for change through ambidextrous thinking.