Financial assets, linear and nonlinear policy rules: An in-sample assessment of the reaction function of the South African Reserve Bank
AbstractPurpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate how the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) sets monetary policy rate. Design/methodology/approach – Given the controversial debate on whether central banks should target asset prices for economic stability, the authors analyse whether the SARB policy-makers pay close attention to asset and financial markets in its policy decisions in the context of both linear and nonlinear Taylor type rule models of monetary policy. Findings – The main findings are that the nonlinear Taylor rule provides the best description of in-sample SARB interest rate setting behaviour as the financial crisis unfolds. The SARB policy-makers pay close attention to the financial conditions index when setting interest rates. The SARB's response of monetary policy to inflation is greater during business cycle recessions with not much weight on output and seems to place high importance on inflationary pressures of output during boom periods. The 2007-2009 financial crisis witnesses an overall decreased reaction to inflation, output and financial conditions amidst increased economic uncertainty. Originality/value – This paper introduces a financial condition index into a Taylor monetary policy rule and examines whether nonlinear models can provide additional information over a linear model. JEL classification: C51, C52, C53, E52, E58
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Economic Studies.
Volume (Year): 39 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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- Kasai, Ndahiriwe & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rules for South Africa," MPRA Paper 40699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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