Distinctive demand and risk characteristics of residential housing loan market in India
AbstractPurpose – The primary objective of the paper is to demonstrate the importance of borrower-specific characteristics as well as local situation factors in determining the demand prospect as well as the risk of credit loss on residential housing loan repayment behavior in India. Design/methodology/approach – Using 13,487 housing loan accounts (sanctioned from 1993-2007) data from Banks and Housing Finance Cos (HFCs) in India, this paper attempts to find out the crucial factors that drive demand for housing and its correlation with borrower characteristics using a panel regression method. Next, using logistic regression, housing loan defaults and the major causative factors of the same are examined. Findings – In analyzing the housing demand pattern, some special characteristics of the Indian residential housing market (demographic and social features) and the housing loan facility structure (loan process, loan margin, loan rate, collateral structure etc.), that have contributed to the safety and soundness of the Indian housing market have been deciphered. The empirical results suggest that borrower defaults on housing loan payments is mainly driven by change in the market value of the property vis-à-vis the loan amount and EMI to income ratio. A 10 percent decrease in the market value of the property vis-à-vis the loan amount raises the odds of default by 1.55 percent. Similarly, a 10 percent increase in EMI to income ratio raises the delinquency chance by 4.50 percent. However, one cannot ignore borrower characteristics like marital status, employment situation, regional locations, city locations, age profile and house preference which otherwise may inhibit the lender to properly assess credit risk in home loan business, as the results show that these parameters also act as default triggers. Originality/value – This study contributes on the micro side of the housing market in India, since it uses unique and robust loan information data from banks and HFCs. The empirical results obtained in this paper are useful to regulators, policy makers, market players as well as the researchers to understand housing market demand and risk characteristics in an emerging market economy such as India.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Economic Studies.
Volume (Year): 38 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com
Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Luci Ellis, 2010.
"The Housing Meltdown: Why Did It Happen in the United States?,"
International Real Estate Review,
Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 13(3), pages 351-394.
- Luci Ellis, 2008. "The housing meltdown: Why did it happen in the United States?," BIS Working Papers 259, Bank for International Settlements.
- Vandell, Kerry D, 1978. "Default Risk under Alternative Mortgage Instruments," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(5), pages 1279-96, December.
- Paul S. Mills & John Kiff, 2007. "Money for Nothing and Checks for Free: Recent Developments in U.S. Subprime Mortgage Markets," IMF Working Papers 07/188, International Monetary Fund.
- Edwin S. Mills & Luan Sende Lubuele, 1994. "Performance of residential mortgages in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, pages 245-262.
- James N. Brown & Harvey S. Rosen, 1982.
"On the Estimation of Structural Hedonic Price Models,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brown, James N & Rosen, Harvey S, 1982. "On the Estimation of Structural Hedonic Price Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 765-68, May.
- Epple, Dennis, 1987. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Estimating Demand and Supply Functions for Differentiated Products," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 59-80, February.
- Stansell, Stanley R & Millar, James A, 1976. "An Empirical Study of Mortgage Payment to Income Ratios in a Variable Rate Mortgage Program," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 415-25, May.
- Patrick Bajari & Matthew E. Kahn, 2002.
"Estimating Housing Demand with an Application to Explaining Racial Segregation in Cities,"
02011, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Patrick Bajari & Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "Estimating Housing Demand With an Application to Explaining Racial Segregation in Cities," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 20-33, January.
- Patrick Bajari & Matthew E. Kahn, 2003. "Estimating Housing Demand with an Application to Explaining Racial Segregation in Cities," NBER Working Papers 9891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mills, Edwin S & Lubuele, Luan' Sende, 1994. "Performance of Residential Mortgages in Low- and Moderate-Income Neighborhoods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 245-60, November.
- Bartik, Timothy J, 1987. "Estimating Hedonic Demand Parameters with Single Market Data: The Problems Caused by Unobserved Tastes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 178-80, February.
- Paul S. Calem & Susan Wachter, 1998.
"Community Reinvestment and Credit Risk: Evidence from an Affordable Home Loan Program,"
Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers
306, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
- Paul S. Calem & Susan M. Wachter, 1999. "Community Reinvestment and Credit Risk: Evidence from an Affordable-Home-Loan Program," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 105-134.
- Kristopher Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul Willen, 2008.
"Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 69-159.
- Kristopher S. Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Making sense of the subprime crisis," Working Paper 2009-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Kristopher S. Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Making sense of the subprime crisis," Public Policy Discussion Paper 09-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Kerry D. Vandell & Walter Barnes & David Hartzell & Dennis Kraft & William Wendt, 1993. "Commercial Mortgage Defaults: Proportional Hazards Estimation Using Individual Loan Histories," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 451-480.
- Robert B. Avery & Paul S. Calem & Glenn B. Canner, 2004. "Consumer credit scoring: do situational circumstances matter?," BIS Working Papers 146, Bank for International Settlements.
- Webb, Bruce G, 1982. " Borrower Risk under Alternative Mortgage Instruments," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 169-83, March.
- Kerry D. Vandell & Thomas Thibodeau, 1985. "Estimation of Mortgage Defaults Using Disaggregate Loan History Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 292-316.
- T. Gregory Morton, 1975. "A Discriminant Function Analysis of Residential Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 3(1), pages 73-88.
- Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 1995.
"Mortgage Default and Low Downpayment Loans: The Costs of Public Subsidy,"
NBER Working Papers
5184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
- Edward Shinnick, 1997. "Measuring Irish housing quality," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 24(1/2), pages 95-119, January.
- Lawrence, Edward C & Arshadi, Nasser, 1995. "A Multinomial Logit Analysis of Problem Loan Resolution Choices in Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 202-16, February.
- Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
- Alex O. Williams & William Beranek & James Kenkel, 1974. "Default Risk in Urban Mortgages: A Pittsburgh Prototype Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 2(2), pages 101-112.
- Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C., 1999. "Patterns of rational default," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 765-785, November.
- George M. Furstenberg & R. Jeffrey Green, 1974. "Estimation of Delinquency Risk for Home Mortgage Portfolios," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 2(1), pages 5-19.
- Ingram, F. Jerry & Frazier, Emma L., 1982. "Alternative Multivariate Tests in Limited Dependent Variable Models: An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 227-240, June.
- Avery, Robert B. & Calem, Paul S. & Canner, Glenn B., 2004. "Consumer credit scoring: Do situational circumstances matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 835-856, April.
- Peter Chinloy, 1995. "Privatized Default Risk and Real Estate Recessions: The U.K. Mortgage Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(4), pages 401-420.
- repec:fip:fedbsp:y:2008:i:may30 is not listed on IDEAS
- Lawrence, Edward C. & Smith, L. Douglas & Rhoades, Malcolm, 1992. "An analysis of default risk in mobile home credit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 299-312, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Harris).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.