A wavelet network model for analysing exchange rate effects on interest rates
AbstractPurpose – This research paper aims to discuss the effects of exchange rates on interest rates by using wavelet network methodology, which is a combination of wavelets and neural networks. Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs wavelet networks to analyse the relationships between the financial time series. Empirically, the research examines the effects of foreign exchanges on the interest rates in Turkish financial markets by using daily USD/TRY rates and interest rates in Turkish Lira (TRY). Findings – The results indicate that the wavelet network model is the most successful methodology among the alternatives such as Hodrick-Prescott filter, feed-forward neural network, wavelet causality, and wavelet correlation analysis in capturing the non-linear dynamics between the selected time series. Originality/value – The research results have both methodological and practical originality. On the theoretical side, the wavelet network is superior in modelling the causal linkages of the financial time series. For practical aims, on the other hand, the results show that the level of the effects of the exchange rates on the interest rates varies on the time-scale used. Wavelet networks shows that the causality relationship is strong in the short run, while the effect decreases in the mid-run.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Economic Studies.
Volume (Year): 37 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com
Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- A.C. Arize & J. Malindretos & S. Christoffersen, 2003. "Monetary dynamics, exchange rates and parameter instability: an empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(5), pages 493-513, October.
- Faruk Selcuk & Ramazan Gencay, 2001.
"Overnight Borrowing, Interest Rates and Extreme Value Theory,"
Departmental Working Papers
0103, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
- Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk, 2006. "Overnight borrowing, interest rates and extreme value theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 547-563, April.
- Ramsey James B. & Lampart Camille, 1998. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets: Expenditure and Income," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, April.
- Pär Sjölander, 2007. "Unreal exchange rates: a simulation-based approach to adjust misleading PPP estimates," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 256-288, September.
- Tkacz, Greg, 2001. "Neural network forecasting of Canadian GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-69.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Sylvia Staudinger, 2002. "Optimal monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates: a note," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 98-108, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Harris).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.