Dynamic effects of trade and output volatility on the trade-growth nexus: Evidence from Singapore
AbstractPurpose – This paper seeks to revisit the highly debated trade-growth hypothesis by considering the effects of trade and output volatility on the relationship between trade and economic growth. Design/methodology/approach – The relationship is modeled by testing for the existence of output and trade (export and imports separately) using the conditional variances of the variables and then specifying an autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) process in a vector error correction model. Findings – Using Singapore as a case study, the paper finds the two-way relationship between export growth and trade-adjusted GDP growth is robust even after controlling for the effects of income and export volatility. In addition, neither trade nor GDP volatility bears any impact on the bi-directional causality between imports and unadjusted GDP growth thereby highlighting the crucial role of imports as intermediate inputs and embodying foreign technology in promoting economic growth. There is also evidence that output volatility impedes output and trade growth, while trade volatility exerts a negative influence on the trade-adjusted income growth. Practical implications – Ignoring the presence of trade and output volatility in modeling the trade-growth relationship provides biased empirical results which have serious implications for trade-oriented growth strategies that policy makers cannot afford to ignore. Originality/value – This is the first attempt to explicitly model output, export and import volatility in empirically testing the trade-growth hypothesis. Second, the robustness of the hypothesis is also tested by considering GDP and non-trade GDP as it has been argued that use of GDP may lead to the problems of simultaneity and specification bias since exports and imports are themselves a component of GDP.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Economic Studies.
Volume (Year): 37 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com
Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.