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What causes economic growth in Portugal: exports or inward FDI?

Author

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  • Jorge M. Andraz
  • Paulo M.M. Rodrigues

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze possible causal relationships between exports, inward foreign investment and economic growth in Portugal and identify their direction. Design/methodology/approach - The paper uses a three‐stage procedure based on unit root, cointegration and causality tests applied to annual data from 1977 to 2004. Findings - The paper reveals that exports and FDI foster growth in the long‐run while in the short‐run there is a bi‐directional causal relationship between FDI and growth and a univariate causal relationship running from FDI to exports. FDI is viewed as a major determinant of economic growth, both directly and indirectly, via exports for both long and short‐run cases. Practical implications - The results provide important corollaries in terms of policy implications and their relevance is far from being parochial. Some lessons in terms of domestic policies can be drawn by many countries that are now becoming EU members with economic structures and problems similar to those presented by the Portuguese economy in the 1980s. Originality/value - This paper is the first of its kind to analyze the role of both FDI and exports in the Portuguese economy during the 1977‐2004 period, over which many efforts were developed in order to increase the external competition of the economy, in particular in the context of community structural frameworks. In order to reinforce the inflows of FDI, authorities should continue the progressive reduction of barriers to FDI and the reforms of the labour market which started in the early 2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge M. Andraz & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2010. "What causes economic growth in Portugal: exports or inward FDI?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(3), pages 267-287, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:37:y:2010:i:3:p:267-287
    DOI: 10.1108/01443581011061276
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ana Paula Ribeiro & Paula Gracinda Teixeira Santos & Vitor Carvalho, 2013. "Export-led growth in Europe: Where and what to export?," EcoMod2013 5265, EcoMod.
    2. Mukesh Kumar & Nargis & Azeema Begam, 2020. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Selected South Asian Countries," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Tafirenyika Sunde & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2017. "Determinants of house prices and new construction activity: An empirical investigation of the Namibian housing market," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 51(3), pages 389-407, July-Sept.
    4. Ana Paula Ribeiro & Vitor Carvalho & Paula Santos, 2016. "Export-Led Growth in the EU: Where and What to Export?," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 319-344, August.
    5. Beata Udvari, 2016. "The Aid for Trade initiative and the export performance of the Iberian EU-countries," IWE Working Papers 225, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    6. Bhatt, P.R., 2014. "Foreign Direct Investment In Asean Countries, 1990-2012," Revista Galega de Economía, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business., vol. 23(4).
    7. Nebojsa Stojcic & Edvard Orlic, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investment And Structural Transformation Of Exports," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 25(2), pages 355-378, december.
    8. Maru?a Pescu (Beca) & Camelia ?tefan (Baraba?), 2016. "The Effects of Gaps and Disparities on Economic Growth. A Study of 10 Former Socialist Countries from the CEE, Members of the EU," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(43), pages 592-592, August.
    9. Wim Naudé & Martin Cameron, 2021. "Export-Led Growth after COVID-19: The Case of Portugal," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 52, pages 7-53, July.
    10. Aurora A. C. Teixeira & Ana Sofia Loureiro, 2019. "FDI, income inequality and poverty: a time series analysis of Portugal, 1973–2016," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(3), pages 203-249, October.
    11. Carlos Figueira, 2017. "Determinants of the Portuguese GDP stagnation during the 2001-2014 period: an empirical investigation," GEE Papers 0068, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Mar 2017.
    12. Hussain Ali Bekhet, 2013. "Examining the Equilibrium Relationships between Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Employment in Manufacturing and Services Sectors: Evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 4(1), pages 32-38.
    13. Umar Farooq & Jaleel Ahmed & Shamshair Khan, 2021. "Do the macroeconomic factors influence the firm's investment decisions? A generalized method of moments (GMM) approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 790-801, January.
    14. Tânia Pinto & Aurora Teixeira, 2023. "Does scientific research output matter for Portugal’s economic growth?," GEE Papers 0174, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Jul 2023.
    15. Radovan Kastratović, 2020. "The impact of foreign direct investment on host country exports: A meta‐analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), pages 3142-3183, December.

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