Analysis of oscillations in continuous expenditures and their multiple causalities: a case study

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to understand the dynamics of public spending in the continuous services sector of the Secretary of State for Education of Paraná. Design/methodology/approach - Understand the dynamics of public spending in view of the oscillations between years that these expenses present, understanding the expenditure system as a non-linear and complex system in which the causes that generate oscillations in the annual expenses are originated by several random variables. Findings - It was found that several variables affect a public service. Many times policies or other actions try to achieve efficiency in controlling or containing public financial resources. It is not uncommon such actions do not have any determinant or robust effect at their prior objectives due to the nature of phenomena. Research limitations/implications - Government expenditures constitute an event of great complexity with respect to the magnitude of financial units and the budget flow involved in each of these units. In this sense, all the financial units that compose the great public expenditure scenario are inserted in heterogeneous contexts considering the dynamics of geographic, social, cultural and political administrative space of a State. Practical implications - The methods exposed in the paper are important tools to verify how policy, financial, administrative and other dimensions of actions taken influenced a continuous expenditure system. The main objective remained in identifying the strong influence of actions toward random variables that might affect the event. Social implications - Public money from taxes is used for policy purposes. Therefore, the best use of resources, financial, natural and human is needs for any public service. Originality/value - The paper presents an important pace to achieve a better measurement of public continuous expenditures as well as strategies for management regarding the complexity of events within the context.