Spatio-temporal variations in agricultural diversification in India

Purpose - Agriculture diversification acts as income enhancing as well as distress mitigating strategy. India has witnessed rise in per-capita income which in turn has increased the demand for food particularly high-valued food items but agricultural production has failed to keep pace with the growing demand. The purpose of this paper is to examine spatio-temporal variations in agricultural diversification (AD) in India. Second, the authors try to identify the determinants of AD. Third, the authors examine the convergence hypothesis with reference to agriculture diversification across Indian states. Design/methodology/approach - The study is based on the panel data constituting 20 major states of India during 1990–1991 to 2013–2014. It uses Simpson Diversification Index to measure AD. The heteroskedasticity-corrected panel regression model is applied to find out the determinants of AD. The fixed-effects model is used to examineβ-convergence in AD across the sample states. Alternative time series models are applied to examineσ-convergence in AD. Findings - The rising per-capita income and urbanization are driving dietary diversity towards high-valued crops and providing ample opportunity for AD. But poor and inadequate cold storage facility and rising cost of cultivation are posing major hindrance to it. Small land holding and road length have negatively influenced AD which is contrary to the traditional wisdom. The study found divergence in diversification and rising inequality in diversification. Research limitations/implications - The study is based on secondary data. A primary study to complement this could have been better. It is only based on one country. Social implications - Food inflation has serious adverse effect on the society at large. It is necessary to promote AD for controlling food price inflation. Minimum support price provided by the government should be extended to all crops; otherwise, it will fuel inflation. Given the fact fragmentation of land holding is adversely affecting AD, community based farming and consolidation of farm land should be the way forward to improve farmers’ income as well as reduce risk. Originality/value - To best of the authors’ study, this is the first study that examines determinants of AD and convergence in AD during the high growth period of India.