Explanatory power of the tourist destination competitiveness index on the control of the first wave of COVID-19

Purpose - This article intends to analyse the explanatory power of the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI) and some of its constituent factors on national success metrics in managing the initial surge of the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach - The authors study the outbreak control effectiveness of 132 countries during the first semester of 2020. The authors apply generalized linear regression models and weighted least squares models using 6 COVID-19-related dependent variables, 9 TTCI-related independent variables and 12 control variables. Findings - The results suggest that countries with superior TTCI values and selected constituent factors have the highest daily averages of coronavirus infections and fatalities per million and the highest speed rates of COVID-19 spread. The authors also find that these countries have the shortest government response time, the lowest daily average of the social restrictions index and the shortest time from the first case reported in China to the first case reported nationally. Originality/value - To the best of the authors' awareness, no previous study exists analysing the statistical relationship between the TTCIB and some of its constituent factors with the selected metrics of national success at managing the initial surge of the COVID-19 pandemic. This fact represents the primary evidence of this article's unique contribution. 研究目的 - 本文擬分析旅行及觀光競爭力指數、以及其部份構成因素，如何影響有關國家在新型冠狀病毒肺炎大爆發初期控制病毒傳播方面的成功指標。 研究設計/方法/理念 - 我們就132個國家於2020年上半年控制肺炎爆發方面的表現進行研究。我們以廣義線性回歸模型和加權最小平方法進行分析研究，當中使用了六個與新型冠狀病毒肺炎有關的因變數、九個與旅行及觀光競爭力指數有關的自變數、和12個控制變量。 研究結果 - 研究結果暗示、在擁有優越的旅行及觀光競爭力指數值和選定的構成因素的國家，以百萬人來計算，每日冠狀病毒感染及死亡的平均數字是最高的; 而且，新型冠狀病毒肺炎的傳播速度也是最高的。研究結果亦顯示、在這些國家，政府反應所需的時間是最短的，社會限制指數的日均值是最低的，以及首宗在中國被報導的個案與首宗在有關的國家被全國性地報導的個案之間的時間距是最短的。 研究的原創性/價值 - 盡作者們所知，從前似沒有相關的研究、以國家在新型冠狀病毒肺炎大爆發初期成功控制病毒傳播的選定指數、來分析旅行及觀光競爭力指數與其部分構成因素之間的統計關係; 這正是本文所作獨特貢獻的基本證據。