Data-driven identification and analysis of passenger riding paths in megacity metro system

Purpose - The paper aims to identify and analyze passengers’ riding paths for providing better operational support for digital transformation in megacity metro systems. Design/methodology/approach - The authors develop a method to leverage certain passengers’ deterministic riding paths to corroborate other passengers’ uncertain paths. Using Automatic Fare Collection data and train schedules, a witness model is built to recover the actual riding paths for passengers whose paths are unknown otherwise. The identification and analysis of passenger riding paths between three different types of origin–destination) pairs reveal the complexity of passenger path choice. Findings - The results show that passenger path choice modeling is usually characterized by complexity, experience and partial blindness. Some passengers choose paths that are not optimal due to their experience and limited access to overall metro system information. These passengers could be the subject of improved path guidance in light of riding efficiency improved through digital transformation. Originality/value - This research contributes to the improvement of metro management and operations by leveraging ongoing digital transformation in megacity metro systems. Based on the riding paths and trip chains of a large number of individual passengers identified by the proposed method, metro operation management could prevent risks in areas with concentrated passenger flow in advance, optimally adjust train schedules on a daily basis and deliver real-time riding guidance station by station, which would greatly improve megacity metro systems’ service safety, quality and operational efficacy over time.