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Tasa de interés neutral y política monetaria para México, 2020-2024

Author

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  • Sánchez Vargas, Armando

    (Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas-UNAM)

  • Martínez Ventura, Débora

    (Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas-UNAM)

  • López-Herrera, Francisco

    (Facultad de Contaduría y Administración-UNAM)

Abstract

Given the uncertainty in this regard, this paper analyzes the most appropriate monetary policy position for Mexico, which aims to maintain the inflation objective without negatively affecting product growth. The value of the neutral interest rate in Mexico for the next five years is estimated based on Taylor’s rule and a co-integrated vector autoregression (VAR) model (CVAR). The results suggest that the monetary policy rate is above the neutral interest rate, which, combined with the potential international rate cut, could grant the central bank for almost the entire six-year period a degree of freedom to maintain its rate below the current level; in the short term the current monetary policy rate could be cut by at least 25 points without risking convergence to the inflation target.

Suggested Citation

  • Sánchez Vargas, Armando & Martínez Ventura, Débora & López-Herrera, Francisco, 2021. "Tasa de interés neutral y política monetaria para México, 2020-2024," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 88(349), pages 201-218, enero-mar.
    • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:88:y:2021:i:349:p:201-218
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v88i349.1002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Neutral interest rate; monetary policy rate; Taylor’s rule; CVAR models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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