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La desaceleración del crecimiento económico en México desde 1982

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Author Info
Ros, Jaime (Universidad de Notre Dame)
Abstract

This paper discusses the growth slowdown of the Mexican economy during the reform and post reform periods. It addresses four possible factors behind the growth deceleration. First, the role of international trade integration showing that the trade policy reforms of the 1980s and 1990s were in fact very successful in enhancing export growth and trade openness but not in promoting a dynamic pattern of trade specialization. Second, the productivity growth slowdown arguing that this should be seen as a consequence rather that a cause of the growth deceleration as the evolution of productivity growth is closely associated to the expansion of tertiary underemployment. Third, the discussion of the role of human capital formation suggest that educational and health indicators have been improving during the recent period, partly as a consequence of the demographic bonus, and cannot be held responsible for the fall in output per worker that has taken place since the early 1980s. Finally, the paper focuses on what it believes is the primary determinant of the growth slowdown, the low rate of physical capital accumulation.// Este artículo analiza la desaceleración del crecimiento en la economía mexicana durante los periodos de reforma y posreforma. Examina cuatro posibles factores detrás de la desaceleración del crecimiento. Primero, el papel de la integración comercial internacional muestra que las reformas comerciales de los años ochenta y noventa fueron de hecho muy exitosas en estimular el crecimiento de las exportaciones y la apertura comercial aunque no en promover una pauta de especialización comercial dinámica. Segundo, la desaceleración del crecimiento de la productividad debe ser vista como una consecuencia y no una causa de la desaceleración del crecimiento en medida en que la evolución del crecimiento de la productividad esta estrechamente asociado a la expansión del subempleo en el sector terciario. Tercero, el análisis del papel de la formación del capital humano sugiere que los indicadores de educación y salud han estado mejorando durante el periodo reciente, en parte como consecuencia del bono demográfico, y no pueden ser responsables por la caída en el producto por trabajador presentada desde principios de los años ochenta. Por último, el artículo se centra en lo que se piensa que es el determinante primario de la desaceleración del crecimiento, la baja tasa de acumulación de capital físico.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LXXV (3) (2008)
Issue (Month): 299 (julio-septiembre)
Pages: 537-560
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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:75:y:2008:i:299:p:537-560

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Web page: http://www.fondodeculturaeconomica.com/

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Related research
Keywords: crecimiento económico; México;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
O54 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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