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Análisis de las funciones de importación y exportación de México (1980-2000)

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  • Garcés Díaz, Daniel G.

    (Banco de México)

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    Abstract

    This document studies the long-run functions and the adjustment dynamics for Mexican foreign trade with both aggregated and disaggregated data. Exports depend on the US index of industrial production and the real exchange rate. The level of imports is a function of the Mexican index of industrial production, the level of total exports and the real exchange rate. An important result is that almost all the estimated functions, for both the long and the short run, are stable for the 1990-2000 period while almost none of them is stable for the whole sample. This fact suggests that the opening up of the economy that took place during the eighties caused a pronounced structural change in the Mexican foreign trade and that NAFTA is the natural continuation of such a process.// En este artículo se estudian las funciones de largo plazo y la dinámica del comercio exterior de México con datos agregados y desagregados. Las exportaciones totales dependen del índice de la producción industrial de los Estado Unidos y del tipo de cambio real. El nivel de las importaciones totales es función del índice de producción industrial en México, del nivel de las exportaciones totales y del tipo de cambio real. Un resultado importante es que casi todas la funciones, tanto de largo como de corto plazos, son estables para el periodo 1990-2000, mientras que ninguna lo es para toda la muestra. Esto sugiere que la apertura comercial de los años ochenta provocó un cambio estructural muy pronunciado en el comercio exterior mexicano y que el TLCAN es la continuación natural de dicho proceso.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

    Volume (Year): LXXV (1) (2008)
    Issue (Month): 297 (enero-marzo)
    Pages: 109-141

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    Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:75:y:2008:i:297:p:109-141

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    Related research

    Keywords: cointegration; foreign trade; NAFTA; cointegración; comercio exterior; TLCAN;

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