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Evaluación de la política comercial de México respecto al mercado de maíz

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  • García Salazar, José Alberto

    (Texas A&M University)

  • Williams, Gary W.

    (Texas A&M University)

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    Abstract

    In order to analyze how the commercial policy, the exchange rate and transports cost affect the Mexican maize market a model of spatial and intertemporal equilibrium is validated and used for the average year 1998-2000. The results indicate that maize market is sensitive to commercial policy and exchange rate. In contrast, with a government control over maize imports, an increase in cost of transportation from the ports of entry to the cites where the imports are consumed would have little effect on the maize market, although it would affect the composition of the imports by port and border. If in 1998-2000 the quota established by NAFTA had been respected the production would have been 1.2 million tons higher, although the consumption would have dropped by 1 million tons, compared with the levels in 1998-2000. A free trade policy in 1998-2000 would have put maize imports at 6.4 million tons.// Para analizar cómo la política comercial, el tipo de cambio y los costos de transporte afectan el mercado de maíz en México se validó un modelo de equilibrio espacial e intertemporal para el año promedio 1998-2000. Los resultados indican que el mercado de maíz es sensible al tipo de cambio y a la política comercial; por otra parte, con un control gubernamental a las importaciones, los aumentos en los costos de transporte de maíz proveniente del exterior no tienen efectos significativos en la oferta y la demanda, aunque sí en la composición de las importaciones. Si en 1998-2000 se hubiera respetado la cuota de importación establecida en el TLCAN, la producción y el consumo habrían sido mayor y menor, en 1.2 y 1.0 millones de toneladas, respectivamente, en relación con los de 1998-2000. Con el libre comercio habría aumentado el consumo y diminuido la producción colocando las importaciones en 6.4 millones de toneladas.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

    Volume (Year): LXXI (1) (2004)
    Issue (Month): 281 (enero-marzo)
    Pages: 169-213

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    Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:71:y:2004:i:281:p:169-213

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    Related research

    Keywords: maíz; evaluación; política comercial; tipo de cambio; modelo de equilibrio espacial e intertemporal;

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