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Límites de la flotación mexicana

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  • Ibarra, Carlos A.

    (Departamento de Economía, Universidad de las Américas-Puebla)

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    Abstract

    This paper examines some aspects of the performance of the floating exchange rate regime adopted in Mexico in December of 1994. In particular, it focuses on the interest rate- exchange rate link and on the relationship between disinflation and the real exchange rate. It shows that both the real interest rate and the exchange rate became more volatile with the shift to float, and argues that the dynamic response of the interest rate to a currency depreciation has represented a stumbling block for the conduct of an autonomous, anticyclical monetary policy. It presents evidence, however, that this restriction has been relaxing over time. The paper also shows that there has been a similar pattern of real exchange rate appreciation in the desinflation processes of both the band and the floating periods. This is perhaps surprising in that it was only during the band period that the nominal exchange rate was explicitly used as an anchor. A possible explanation, which does not depend on the particular type of currency regime in operation, is proposed. The paper ends by looking at the limits of the floating regime in the context of the recent episode of US economic deceleration.// Este artículo analiza algunos aspectos del desempeño del régimen de tipo de cambio flotante adoptado en México en diciembre de 1994. En particular, se centra en la relación entre la tasa de interés y el tipo de cambio, así como entre la desinflación y el tipo de cambio real. Demuestra que la tasa de interés real y de tipo de cambio fueron más volátiles con la adopción de la flotación, y afirma que la respuesta dinámica de la tasa de interés a una depreciación de la moneda ha representado una rémora para la conducción de una política monetaria anticíclica autónoma. Sin embargo, también revela que esta restricción se ha relajado a lo largo del tiempo y que ha ocurrido una pauta similar de apreciación del tipo de cambio real en los procesos de desinflación de los periodos de la banda y de la flotación. Quizá resulte esto sorprendente por cuanto sólo durante el periodo de la banda se utilizó explícitamente al tipo de cambio nominal como ancla. Se propone una explicación posible que no depende del tipo particular de régimen cambiario en operación. El artículo termina con un examen de los límites de régimen flotante en el contexto del episodio reciente de la desaceleración económica de los Estados Unidos.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

    Volume (Year): LXIX (4) (2002)
    Issue (Month): 276 (octubre-diciembre)
    Pages: 513-542

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    Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:69:y:2002:i:276:p:513-542

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    Web page: http://www.fondodeculturaeconomica.com/

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    Related research

    Keywords: regímenes de tipos de cambio flotantes; relación entre la tasa de interés y el tipo de cambio; tipo de cambio real; desinflación;

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