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Comentario a la reseña de NORA LUSTIG

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  • Ize, Alain

Abstract

La reseña de Nora Lustig sobre seis interpretaciones de las causas de la crisis mexicana de 1982 sintetiza claramente la esencia de los trabajos analizados y reabre un debate que merece ser retomado seis años más tarde por sus implicaciones sobre los acontecimientos y perspectivas económicas más recientes. Me limitaré a comentar brevemente cuatro puntos. ¿choques externos o errores internos? El papel relativo de los factores internos y los externos en la crisis ha sido ya ampliamente analizado y discutido. Para el caso de México queda claro que hubo una mejora muy importante en los términos de intercambio hasta 1981 debido al fuerte aumento del precio del petróleo. La caída que ocurrió en 1981 tuvo, sin embargo, a pesar de ser leve, un gran efecto en las expectativas. por la capitalización de las pérdidas fiscales futuras que ella implicaba. Dada la fuerte sobrevaluación del tipo de cambio, el perfil de aceleración constante del gasto público y la falta de medidas fiscales correctivas el valor percibido del peso se redujo brutalmente al desplomarse la burbuja petrolera...

Suggested Citation

  • Ize, Alain, 1989. "Comentario a la reseña de NORA LUSTIG," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 56(224), pages 957-959, octubre-d.
    • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:56:y:1989:i:224:p:957-959
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