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Inflation targeting, disinflation, and debt traps in Argentina

Author

Listed:
  • Emiliano Libman

    (Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad (CEDES), CIMaD and Business School, National University of San Martín (UNSAM), Argentina)

  • Gabriel Palazzo

    (Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad (CEDES), University of Buenos Aires (UBA)-CONICET, Argentina)

Abstract

This paper highlights the role of external indebtedness and the presence of inflationary inertia in order to assess the effectiveness and sustainability of inflation targeting during disinflation episodes. As the recent Argentinian experience illustrates, a sluggish inflation rate and a significant current-account deficit may make the stabilization process difficult. To illustrate the point, we build a model that shows that, when inflation adjusts fast, the target may be achieved without building too much external debt. But if inflation adjusts slowly, an excessive build-up of external debt could lead to an increase in the risk premium, a sudden shortage of foreign exchange, and the eventual collapse of the inflation-targeting regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Emiliano Libman & Gabriel Palazzo, 2020. "Inflation targeting, disinflation, and debt traps in Argentina," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 78-105, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:ejeepi:v:17:y:2020:i:1:p78-105
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Carrera & Gaspar Maciel & Esteban Rodríguez, 2023. "El rol de los títulos emitidos por el Banco Central en los últimos 20 años de política monetaria argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 2023107, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    2. Rapetti, Martin & Palazzo, Gabriel & Waldman, Joaquin, 2023. "Planes de estabilización: Evidencia de América Latina [Stabilization plans: Evidence from Latin America]," MPRA Paper 118910, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation targeting; debt traps; chronic inflation; lack of credibility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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