Las perspectivas demográficas y el Sistema Sanitario

The review of the influence of pure demographic factors on the public expenditure on health care in Spain suggests that their impact is limited. The traditional leading role attributed to the chronological age as a critical driver of the expenditure growth is largely mitigated, in recent studies, when proximity to death is taken into account. Moreover, the effect induced by proximity to death vanishes when morbidity and disability are considered. Nevertheless, other nondemographic determinants (e.g. technological change) are the main drivers of the health care expenditure. Indeed, according to the scenario for Spain projected by the European Commission, the non-demographical factors can increase the health care expenditure over 2016-2070 in 2 percentage points of GDP. On the other hand, the evolution followed by the public expenditure on health care over 2008-2017 points out that the expenditure profile by age groups in Spain probably has significantly varied as a consequence of the economic crisis and expenditure cuts performed by public administrations.