Experiencias y herramientas para anticipar y curar la deflación. ¿Qué puede hacer un banco central?

Throughout the first half of 2003 there has been an intensification of the discussion on the possibility of anticipating deflationist episodes, on the capacity of the economic authorities to avoid them, on the possibilities to offset them in case they take place and, especially, on the risks of the fact that some countries, like the USA or Germany are entering a conjuncture that is bringing about a generalised drop in prices like the one suffered by Japan as from 1995. The objective of the present article is to provide additional information on the risks in each one of these countries reference to the first three aspects mentioned. That is to say, this is an analysis of the analytical tools available to anticipate deflation and the most adequate economic policies in the hands of a central bank to avoid or, if necessary, to remedy a drop in prices.