Bernhard Herz (Bayreuth University (Department of Economics)) Werner Roger (Bayreuth University (Department of Economics) and the European Commission (ECFIN))
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The issue of the backward-looking versus the forward-looking Phillips curve is still an open question in the macroeconomics profession. We identify the real output effects of monetary policy shocks as a crucial implication of the traditional Phillips curve. The backward-looking Phillips curve predicts a strict intertemporal trade-off in the case of monetary shocks: a positive short run response of output is followed by a period where output is below the baseline. The resulting cumulative output effect is exactly zero. The empirical evidence on the cumulated output effects of money are in strikingly contrast to the backward-looking model.
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Article provided by Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus in its journal Ekonomia.
Volume (Year): 8 (2005) Issue (Month): 1 (Summer) Pages: 92-102 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
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