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Modeling the diagnostics of bankruptcy on Ukraine's insurance market based on harmonic analysis

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  • O. Kuzmenko, M. Kascha

Abstract

The article focuses on the characteristics and mathematical formalization of an approach to the diagnostics of the bankruptcy of agents on the insurance market. Analyzed the characteristic space of the estimation of the bankruptcy of subjects on Ukraine's insurance market for its diagnosis. On the basis of Irwin method, the authors identify the abnormal levels of time series as indicators of early diagnosis of a bankruptcy. Using Fourier series, a decomposition of systemic constituents of the above mentioned indicators and filtration of seasonal components are performed, short-term forecasts are calculated and a mathematical description of the trend and oscillatory components is made. Formulated various practical recommendations for tactical and strategic decisions at different levels of management of the activities of insurance market agents, allowing the latter a timely adaptation to the possibility of adverse changes.

Suggested Citation

  • O. Kuzmenko, M. Kascha, 2017. "Modeling the diagnostics of bankruptcy on Ukraine's insurance market based on harmonic analysis," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 1, pages 146-157.
    • Handle: RePEc:eip:journl:y:2017:i:1:p:146-157
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    File URL: http://eip.org.ua/docs/EP_17_1_146_uk.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Paul Raschky & Howard Kunreuther, 2015. "Corporate Demand for Insurance: New Evidence From the U.S. Terrorism and Property Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 82(3), pages 505-530, September.
    2. Janko Gorter & Jacob A. Bikker, 2013. "Investment risk taking by institutional investors," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(33), pages 4629-4640, November.
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