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Short-term forecast of revenues from natural person income tax in Ukraine

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  • M. Sokolyk, M. Piven

Abstract

The authors propose a technique for short-term forecasting of tax revenues from natural person incomes expected with the increase in average monthly wages of employed in the economy and in its budget-funded sector in 2005-2006 in the context of the gradual bridging of the gap between minimum wage and subsistence level. The technique has been tested on the variants of the change in minimum wage made in 2005-2006. The article provides forecast-based estimates of tax revenues in 2006 (according to preliminary intentions on the amount of minimum wage and the Law of Ukraine "On the state budget for 2006"), as well as assumptions, conditions and risks of the forecast realization.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Sokolyk, M. Piven, 2006. "Short-term forecast of revenues from natural person income tax in Ukraine," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 4, pages 108-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:eip:journl:y:2006:i:4:p:108-122
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