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Turkiye Icin Anfis Modeli ile Birincil Enerji Talep Tahmini

Author

Listed:
  • Turgut BAYRAMOGLU

    (Bayburt Universitesi)

  • Hakan PABUÇCU

    (Bayburt Universitesi)

  • Fusun ÇELEBI BOZ

    (Bayburt Universitesi)

Abstract

Enerji talebi; ekonomik buyume, enerji fiyatlari, nufus, sehirlesme ve verimlilik gibi bir dizi faktore baglidir. Bu nedenle, ulkelerin iktisadi acidan gelisiminde enerji talebinin oldukca onemli bir yeri vardir. Buradan hareketle bu calismada, enerji talebinin belirleyicisi olan ve literaturde uzerinde en fazla durulan gostergelerden yararlanilarak, 2016-2030 yillari arasinda Turkiye’nin enerji talebi, Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) yontemi ile belirlenmeye calisilmistir. Soz konusu gostergeler; OECD ulkelerinin 1990-2030 yillari arasindaki donemi kapsayan buyume rakamlari, nufus ve enerji fiyatlari bagimsiz degiskenler olarak ele alinmistir. Arastirmanin bagimli degiskeni ise bu ulkelerin birincil enerji talepleridir. Yapilan analiz sonucunda, Turkiye’nin gelecekteki enerji talebinde diger gelismis ulkelere benzer bir sekilde buyuk bir artis olabilecegi tespit edilmistir. Ancak petrol ve dogal gaz gibi birincil kaynaklara dayali enerji talebinde cok ciddi bir degisme olmayacagi sonucuna varilmistir. Yapilan analizle, literaturde daha once buyume ve nufusa dayali calismalar yapilmis ancak enerji fiyatlarina dayali olarak kayda deger bir calismaya rastlanmamistir. Diger degiskenlerle beraber enerji fiyatlari da calismaya dâhil edilerek literaturdeki bir bosluk doldurulmaya calisilmistir.

Suggested Citation

  • Turgut BAYRAMOGLU & Hakan PABUÇCU & Fusun ÇELEBI BOZ, 2017. "Turkiye Icin Anfis Modeli ile Birincil Enerji Talep Tahmini," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 17(3), pages 431-446.
    • Handle: RePEc:ege:journl:v:17:y:2017:i:3:p:431-446
    DOI: 10.21121/eab.2017328408
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