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Isletmelerin Finansal Basarili ve Basarisiz Olma Durumlarinin Veri Madenciligi ve Lojistik Regresyon Analizi Ile Tahmin Edilebilirligi

Author

Listed:
  • Ceyda YERDELEN KAYGIN

    (Kafkas Universitesi Sosyal Bilimler MYO)

  • Alper TAZEGUL

    (Kafkas Universitesi IIBF)

  • Hakan YAZARKAN

    (Ordu Universitesi IIBF)

Abstract

Gunumuz kosullari goz onune alindiginda isletmelerin hedeflerini gerceklestirebilmeleri icin finansal acidan guclu olmalari gerekmektedir. Bu nedenle finansal basarisizliklarinin tahmin edilmesi, isletmelerin gelecekte olusabilecek finansal riskleri tespit etmeleri ve gerekli onlemleri almalari bakimindan oldukca onemlidir. Calismada, Borsa Istanbul’da 2010-2013 doneminde kesintisiz olarak islem goren 143 imalat sanayi sirketinin yillik bilanco ve gelir tablosu verilerinden yararlanilarak isletmelerin finansal basarili ve basarisiz olma durumlari tahmin edilmeye calisilmistir. Arastirmada Veri Madenciligi ve Lojistik Regresyon Analizi yontemleri kullanilmistir. 2013 yili baz alinarak bir yil, iki yil ve uc yil oncesinin tahmin edilmesine yonelik modeller gelistirilmis ve modellerin siniflandirma dogruluklari baska bir ifadeyle modellerin tahmin gucu karsilastirilmistir. Analiz sonucunda, isletmelerin finansal basarili ve basarisiz olma durumlarini tahmin etmek icin olusturulan tum modellerde 2012 yili tahmin gucu en basarili yil olarak saptanmistir.

Suggested Citation

  • Ceyda YERDELEN KAYGIN & Alper TAZEGUL & Hakan YAZARKAN, 2016. "Isletmelerin Finansal Basarili ve Basarisiz Olma Durumlarinin Veri Madenciligi ve Lojistik Regresyon Analizi Ile Tahmin Edilebilirligi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 16(1), pages 147-159.
    • Handle: RePEc:ege:journl:v:16:y:2016:i:1:p:147-159
    DOI: 10.21121/eab.2016119960
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finansal Basari/Basarisizlik; Veri Madenciligi; Lojistik Regresyon Analizi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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