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Turkiye Ithalatinin Temel Belirleyicileri (1989-2004)


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    (Kocaeli Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Iktisat Bolumu)

  • Hanife BIDIRDI

    (Kocaeli Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Iktisat Bolumu)

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    Bu calismanin temel amaci, 1989-2004 donemine iliskin Turkiye ithalatinin belirleyicilerini tespit etmek ve tahmin sonuclarindan hareketle politika onerisinde bulunmaktir. Bu cercevede, Engle-Granger iki asamali tahmin yontemi kullanilarak uzun donem ithalat talebi tahmin edilmis ve buradan hareketle Hata Duzeltme Modeli yardimiyla kisa donem iliskiler arastirilmistir. Aciklayici degisken olarak reel gelir ve reel efektif doviz kurunun yer aldigi modelin tahmin edilmesi ile Turkiye ithalatinin reel doviz kurundan ziyade buyumeye karsi daha duyarli oldugu gozlenmistir. Ayni zamanda bu sonuc, bir dis ticaret acigi durumunda ithalati azaltma bakimindan kur politikasinin etkinligi hakkinda da bir fikir verecektir.

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    Article provided by Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences in its journal Ege Academic Review.

    Volume (Year): 10 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 351-369

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    Handle: RePEc:ege:journl:v:10:y:2010:i:1:p:351-369

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