Simulating electric vehicle policy in the Australian capital territory

Increased use of electric vehicles (EVs) has the potential to reduce carbon emissions. Therefore, predicting the impact of governments' EV incentive policies on the future uptake of EVs is important. This study estimates the impact of incentive policies introduced in the Australian Capital Territory. This estimation is conducted through constructing a microsimulation model and using it to assess the impact of the incentive policies on the purchase of EVs for households in different income quintiles. In the model, the decision about purchasing an EV is based largely on the total cost of ownership of an EV compared to the vehicle already owned and the additional utility of having a new vehicle. The application of the model shows that, regardless of incentives, a drop in the price of EVs will play the most important role in uptake. Incentives will help lower to middle income households, although EV demand is dominated by those in the highest income quintile. Importantly, however, incentives can increase uptake in locations with previously low uptake. Future work needs to focus on the reliability of data on EV's, and how to incorporate the rapid change in the market (eg, rapid uptake of EV's in the ACT) seen in the last few years.