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When can we reconstruct the ancestral state? A unified theory

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  • Ho, Lam Si Tung
  • Dinh, Vu

Abstract

Ancestral state reconstruction is one of the most important tasks in evolutionary biology. Conditions under which we can reliably reconstruct the ancestral state have been studied for both discrete and continuous traits. However, the connection between these results is unclear, and it seems that each model needs different conditions. In this work, we provide a unifying theory on the consistency of ancestral state reconstruction for various types of trait evolution models. Notably, we show that for a sequence of nested trees with bounded heights, the necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a consistent ancestral state reconstruction method under discrete models, the Brownian motion model, and the threshold model are equivalent. When tree heights are unbounded, we provide a simple counter-example to show that this equivalence is no longer valid.

Suggested Citation

  • Ho, Lam Si Tung & Dinh, Vu, 2022. "When can we reconstruct the ancestral state? A unified theory," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 22-27.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:148:y:2022:i:c:p:22-27
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2022.09.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lambert, Amaury & Stadler, Tanja, 2013. "Birth–death models and coalescent point processes: The shape and probability of reconstructed phylogenies," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 113-128.
    2. Ho, Lam Si Tung & Dinh, Vu & Nguyen, Cuong V., 2019. "Multi-task learning improves ancestral state reconstruction," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 33-39.
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