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A transformation useful for bounding a forecast

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  • Thompson, Patrick A.

Abstract

In many problems, the statistician may believe it unlikely that the data will ever exceed a certain value or drop below another, although there are no theoretical limits on the variable being modeled. This information could, and perhaps should, be used in statistical modeling; if not, unbelievable forecasts and forecast intervals may result. This paper discussed a generalized logistic transformation that may be used to impose these subjective bounds on the variable. Two methods for computing the limits are presented, as well as a simple alternative to one technique. An example illustrates how the transformation works in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Thompson, Patrick A., 1989. "A transformation useful for bounding a forecast," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 469-475, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:8:y:1989:i:5:p:469-475
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    1. repec:mpr:mprres:3780 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Howard Hogan & William Bell & Lynn Weidman & Allen Schirm, "undated". "Integrating Survey, Demographic, and Modeling Methods," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 750bf79c04de481591c588568, Mathematica Policy Research.

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