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Detecting and date-stamping bubbles in fan tokens

Author

Listed:
  • Assaf, Ata
  • Demir, Ender
  • Ersan, Oguz

Abstract

We focus on the existence of bubbles in fan tokens, utilizing the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) tests. We use daily closing prices of the top 20 fan tokens according to their market capitalization, along with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Chiliz. The evidence from the GSADF test results indicates that the prices of 13 out of 20 fan tokens and the three cryptocurrencies have explosive periods associated with bubbles. Our results also show that the percentage of bubble days is between 0 % and 5% for all fan tokens. Among the 13 fan tokens exhibiting bubble behavior in their prices, nine have multiple sub-periods associated with bubbles, while only four tokens have a single sub-period with explosive prices. Bubbles in token prices are short-lived bubbles; most last for a few days. As a robustness analysis, we also perform LPPLS (Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity), providing similar results. Further analysis shows that trading volume, fan token return, Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility (EMVID) are positively associated with the presence of bubbles in fan token prices, while oil return is negatively associated with bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Assaf, Ata & Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2024. "Detecting and date-stamping bubbles in fan tokens," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 98-113.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:92:y:2024:i:c:p:98-113
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.01.039
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fan token; Price bubbles; Bitcoin; SADF; GSADF;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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