Sunset and sunrise business strategies shaping national energy transitions

Energy intensive processes are embedded in the socio-economic and political fabric of our societies; therefore a “green industrial revolution” entails major technical achievements and profound social transformations. In this uncertain landscape, businesses face a crucial but difficult position: they need to manage the decline of their legacy assets, are expected to provide stable employment, and must contribute to national energy resilience and security. As such, significant societal risks are associated to business positioning towards decarbonisation. This paper describes “sunset” versus “sunrise” corporate strategies and their interconnections with market developments, citizens, and government's support to low-carbon transitions. Using a qualitative System Dynamics approach, the paper highlights vicious and virtuous feedback mechanisms where accumulations and tipping points may arise. While defensive strategies to preserve fossil-based assets may appear rational in the short-term, they can have deleterious long-term effects for business and society. The main risks stem from the creation of stranded physical, financial, and human assets. On the contrary, incumbents can increase market certainty and generate industry-society co-benefits by engaging in skills transfers and sending clear innovation signals to investors. The findings, synthetised in a Causal Loop Diagram highlighting key variables and delays, constitute a building step towards improving the realism of energy systems modelling. The study also provides a discussion on centralisation and the political power dynamics of national energy transitions.