Opening the black box of demand response: Exploring the cognitive processes

Evaluations of price-based demand response programs tend to focus on users' electricity use patterns and/or their practical experiences. Less is known about the effects that price-based demand response programs have on cognitive drivers and barriers to energy-using behaviors and habits, or how well these predict timing of households' electricity use. This study seeks to address this gap by evaluating the effects of a mandatory demand-based time-of-use distribution tariff, using electricity-meter and questionnaire data in an intervention and a reference area, and a structural equation model following the theory of planned behavior. Although no effect was found of the tariff on the actual proportion of peak-hour use, there were significant effects on users’ intentions and motivations to shift electricity use to off-peak hours. The absence of effect on the proportion of peak-hour use seems explained by the facts that only a minority of consumers were aware of their tariffs, and by the (at least partially correct) beliefs that consumers used very little electricity and most of it was already used in off-peak hours. The relationships between intentions, drivers and the actual proportion of peak-hour use were stronger in the intervention area, compared to the reference area. Interestingly, this was true not only for the motivation targeted by the tariff, economic savings, but also for sustainability concerns and social norms. This suggests that effects of the tariff may partly run via other non-monetary motivators.