IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v91y2006i10p1364-1372.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic inversion for chicken processing lines

Author

Listed:
  • Cooke, Roger M.
  • Nauta, Maarten
  • Havelaar, Arie H.
  • van der Fels, Ine

Abstract

We discuss an application of probabilistic inversion techniques to a model of campylobacter transmission in chicken processing lines. Such techniques are indicated when we wish to quantify a model which is new and perhaps unfamiliar to the expert community. In this case there are no measurements for estimating model parameters, and experts are typically unable to give a considered judgment. In such cases, experts are asked to quantify their uncertainty regarding variables which can be predicted by the model. The experts’ distributions (after combination) are then pulled back onto the parameter space of the model, a process termed “probabilistic inversion†. This study illustrates two such techniques, iterative proportional fitting (IPF) and PARmeter fitting for uncertain models (PARFUM). In addition, we illustrate how expert judgement on predicted observable quantities in combination with probabilistic inversion may be used for model validation and/or model criticism.

Suggested Citation

  • Cooke, Roger M. & Nauta, Maarten & Havelaar, Arie H. & van der Fels, Ine, 2006. "Probabilistic inversion for chicken processing lines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1364-1372.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:91:y:2006:i:10:p:1364-1372
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2005.11.054
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832005002450
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2005.11.054?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. P. Vangay & J. Steingrimsson & M. Wiedmann & M. J. Stasiewicz, 2014. "Classification of Listeria monocytogenes Persistence in Retail Delicatessen Environments Using Expert Elicitation and Machine Learning," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(10), pages 1830-1845, October.
    2. Emily Ho & David V. Budescu & Valentina Bosetti & Detlef P. Vuuren & Klaus Keller, 2019. "Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(4), pages 545-561, August.
    3. Dorota Kurowicka & Maarten Nauta & Katarzyna Jozwiak & Roger Cooke, 2010. "Updating Parameters of the Chicken Processing Line Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(6), pages 934-944, June.
    4. Haphuriwat, N. & Bier, V.M., 2011. "Trade-offs between target hardening and overarching protection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 320-328, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:91:y:2006:i:10:p:1364-1372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.