IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v147y2016icp156-169.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using sparse polynomial chaos expansions for the global sensitivity analysis of groundwater lifetime expectancy in a multi-layered hydrogeological model

Author

Listed:
  • Deman, G.
  • Konakli, K.
  • Sudret, B.
  • Kerrou, J.
  • Perrochet, P.
  • Benabderrahmane, H.

Abstract

The study makes use of polynomial chaos expansions to compute Sobol׳ indices within the frame of a global sensitivity analysis of hydro-dispersive parameters in a simplified vertical cross-section of a segment of the subsurface of the Paris Basin. Applying conservative ranges, the uncertainty in 78 input variables is propagated upon the mean lifetime expectancy of water molecules departing from a specific location within a highly confining layer situated in the middle of the model domain. Lifetime expectancy is a hydrogeological performance measure pertinent to safety analysis with respect to subsurface contaminants, such as radionuclides. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the variability in the mean lifetime expectancy can be sufficiently explained by the uncertainty in the petrofacies, i.e. the sets of porosity and hydraulic conductivity, of only a few layers of the model. The obtained results provide guidance regarding the uncertainty modeling in future investigations employing detailed numerical models of the subsurface of the Paris Basin. Moreover, the study demonstrates the high efficiency of sparse polynomial chaos expansions in computing Sobol׳ indices for high-dimensional models.

Suggested Citation

  • Deman, G. & Konakli, K. & Sudret, B. & Kerrou, J. & Perrochet, P. & Benabderrahmane, H., 2016. "Using sparse polynomial chaos expansions for the global sensitivity analysis of groundwater lifetime expectancy in a multi-layered hydrogeological model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 156-169.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:147:y:2016:i:c:p:156-169
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.11.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832015003324
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2015.11.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marrel, Amandine & Iooss, Bertrand & Laurent, Béatrice & Roustant, Olivier, 2009. "Calculations of Sobol indices for the Gaussian process metamodel," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 742-751.
    2. Sudret, Bruno, 2008. "Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(7), pages 964-979.
    3. Mara, Thierry A. & Tarantola, Stefano, 2012. "Variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 115-121.
    4. Sobol’, I.M. & Tarantola, S. & Gatelli, D. & Kucherenko, S.S. & Mauntz, W., 2007. "Estimating the approximation error when fixing unessential factors in global sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(7), pages 957-960.
    5. Blatman, Géraud & Sudret, Bruno, 2010. "Efficient computation of global sensitivity indices using sparse polynomial chaos expansions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1216-1229.
    6. Storlie, Curtis B. & Swiler, Laura P. & Helton, Jon C. & Sallaberry, Cedric J., 2009. "Implementation and evaluation of nonparametric regression procedures for sensitivity analysis of computationally demanding models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1735-1763.
    7. E. Borgonovo & S. Tarantola & E. Plischke & M. D. Morris, 2014. "Transformations and invariance in the sensitivity analysis of computer experiments," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 76(5), pages 925-947, November.
    8. Jeremy E. Oakley & Anthony O'Hagan, 2004. "Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of complex models: a Bayesian approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(3), pages 751-769, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gersbach, Hans & Liu, Yulin & Tischhauser, Martin, 2021. "Versatile forward guidance: escaping or switching?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Joel A Paulson & Marc Martin-Casas & Ali Mesbah, 2019. "Fast uncertainty quantification for dynamic flux balance analysis using non-smooth polynomial chaos expansions," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-35, August.
    3. Oladyshkin, Sergey & Nowak, Wolfgang, 2018. "Incomplete statistical information limits the utility of high-order polynomial chaos expansions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 137-148.
    4. Daniel Harenberg & Stefano Marelli & Bruno Sudret & Viktor Winschel, 2019. "Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis for economic models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(1), pages 1-41, January.
    5. Aiguo Wu & Shijian Cang & Ruiye Zhang & Zenghui Wang & Zengqiang Chen, 2018. "Hyperchaos in a Conservative System with Nonhyperbolic Fixed Points," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-8, April.
    6. Konakli, Katerina & Sudret, Bruno, 2016. "Global sensitivity analysis using low-rank tensor approximations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 64-83.
    7. Miftakhova, Alena, 2021. "Global sensitivity analysis for optimal climate policies: Finding what truly matters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Konakli, Katerina & Sudret, Bruno, 2016. "Global sensitivity analysis using low-rank tensor approximations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 64-83.
    2. Wei, Pengfei & Lu, Zhenzhou & Song, Jingwen, 2015. "Variable importance analysis: A comprehensive review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 399-432.
    3. Matieyendou Lamboni, 2020. "Uncertainty quantification: a minimum variance unbiased (joint) estimator of the non-normalized Sobol’ indices," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 1939-1970, October.
    4. Chen, Xin & Molina-Cristóbal, Arturo & Guenov, Marin D. & Riaz, Atif, 2019. "Efficient method for variance-based sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 97-115.
    5. Matieyendou Lamboni, 2018. "Global sensitivity analysis: a generalized, unbiased and optimal estimator of total-effect variance," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 361-386, March.
    6. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Plischke, Elmar, 2016. "Sensitivity analysis: A review of recent advances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 869-887.
    7. Lambert, Romain S.C. & Lemke, Frank & Kucherenko, Sergei S. & Song, Shufang & Shah, Nilay, 2016. "Global sensitivity analysis using sparse high dimensional model representations generated by the group method of data handling," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 42-54.
    8. Pronzato, Luc, 2019. "Sensitivity analysis via Karhunen–Loève expansion of a random field model: Estimation of Sobol’ indices and experimental design," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 93-109.
    9. Touzani, Samir & Busby, Daniel, 2013. "Smoothing spline analysis of variance approach for global sensitivity analysis of computer codes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 67-81.
    10. Sudret, B. & Mai, C.V., 2015. "Computing derivative-based global sensitivity measures using polynomial chaos expansions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 241-250.
    11. Azzini, Ivano & Rosati, Rossana, 2021. "Sobol’ main effect index: an Innovative Algorithm (IA) using Dynamic Adaptive Variances," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    12. Becker, William, 2020. "Metafunctions for benchmarking in sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    13. Kapusuzoglu, Berkcan & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2021. "Information fusion and machine learning for sensitivity analysis using physics knowledge and experimental data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    14. Blatman, Géraud & Sudret, Bruno, 2010. "Efficient computation of global sensitivity indices using sparse polynomial chaos expansions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1216-1229.
    15. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer & Warren J. Hahn, 2017. "Sensitivity analysis of decision making under dependent uncertainties using copulas," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 5(1), pages 117-139, November.
    16. Emanuele Borgonovo & Gordon B. Hazen & Elmar Plischke, 2016. "A Common Rationale for Global Sensitivity Measures and Their Estimation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(10), pages 1871-1895, October.
    17. Zhang, Xufang & Pandey, Mahesh D., 2014. "An effective approximation for variance-based global sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 164-174.
    18. Oladyshkin, S. & Nowak, W., 2012. "Data-driven uncertainty quantification using the arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 179-190.
    19. Wu, Zeping & Wang, Donghui & Okolo N, Patrick & Hu, Fan & Zhang, Weihua, 2016. "Global sensitivity analysis using a Gaussian Radial Basis Function metamodel," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 171-179.
    20. Xiang Peng & Xiaoqing Xu & Jiquan Li & Shaofei Jiang, 2021. "A Sampling-Based Sensitivity Analysis Method Considering the Uncertainties of Input Variables and Their Distribution Parameters," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:147:y:2016:i:c:p:156-169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.