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Effect of population density on epidemics

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  • Li, Ruiqi
  • Richmond, Peter
  • Roehner, Bertrand M.

Abstract

Investigations of possible links between population density and the propagation and magnitude of epidemics have so far proved inconclusive. There are three possible reasons (i) A lack of focus on appropriate density intervals. (ii) For the density to be a meaningful variable the population must be distributed as uniformly as possible. If an area has towns and cities where a majority of the population is concentrated its average density is meaningless. (iii) In propagation of an epidemic the initial proportion of susceptibles (persons who have not developed an immunity) is an essential, yet usually unknown, factor. The assumption that most of the population is susceptible holds only for new strains of diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Ruiqi & Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Effect of population density on epidemics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 713-724.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:510:y:2018:i:c:p:713-724
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.07.025
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Ruiqi & Wang, Wenxu & Di, Zengru, 2017. "Effects of human dynamics on epidemic spreading in Côte d’Ivoire," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 30-40.
    2. Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Exploration of the strength of family links," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 502(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Ruiqi Li & Lei Dong & Jiang Zhang & Xinran Wang & Wen-Xu Wang & Zengru Di & H. Eugene Stanley, 2017. "Simple spatial scaling rules behind complex cities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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