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Statistical characteristics of breakthrough discoveries in science using the metaphor of black and white swans

Author

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  • Zeng, Carl J.
  • Qi, Eric P.
  • Li, Simon S.
  • Stanley, H. Eugene
  • Ye, Fred Y.

Abstract

A publication that reports a breakthrough discovery in a particular scientific field is referred to as a “black swan”, and the most highly-cited papers previously published in the same field “white swans”. Important scientific progress occurs when “white swans” meet a “black swan”, and the citation patterns of the “white swans” change. This metaphor combines scientific discoveries and scientometric data and suggests that breakthrough scientific discoveries are either “black swans” or “grey-black swans”.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeng, Carl J. & Qi, Eric P. & Li, Simon S. & Stanley, H. Eugene & Ye, Fred Y., 2017. "Statistical characteristics of breakthrough discoveries in science using the metaphor of black and white swans," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 487(C), pages 40-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:487:y:2017:i:c:p:40-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.05.041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hou, Jianhua & Yang, Xiucai, 2020. "Social media-based sleeping beauties: Defining, identifying and features," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2).
    2. Helena H. Zhang & Fred Y. Ye, 2020. "Identifying ‘associated-sleeping-beauties’ in ‘swan-groups’ based on small qualified datasets of physics and economics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 122(3), pages 1525-1537, March.
    3. Helena H. Zhang & Alesia A. Zuccala & Fred Y. Ye, 2019. "Tracing the ‘swan groups’ of physics and economics in the key publications of nobel laureates," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(1), pages 425-436, April.

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