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COVID-19 pandemic and chaos theory

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  • Postavaru, O.
  • Anton, S.R.
  • Toma, A.

Abstract

The dynamics of COVID-19 is investigated with regard to complex contributions of the omitted factors. For this purpose, we use a fractional order SEIR model which allows us to calculate the number of infections considering the chaotic contributions into susceptible, exposed, infectious and removed number of individuals. We check our model on Wuhan, China-2019 and South Korea underlying the importance of the chaotic contribution, and then we extend it to Italy and the USA. Results are of great guiding significance to promote evidence-based decisions and policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Postavaru, O. & Anton, S.R. & Toma, A., 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and chaos theory," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 138-149.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:181:y:2021:i:c:p:138-149
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2020.09.029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rihan, F.A. & Al-Mdallal, Q.M. & AlSakaji, H.J. & Hashish, A., 2019. "A fractional-order epidemic model with time-delay and nonlinear incidence rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 97-105.
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    Cited by:

    1. František Božek & Irena Tušer, 2021. "Measures for Ensuring Sustainability during the Current Spreading of Coronaviruses in the Czech Republic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-22, June.
    2. Prem Kumar, R. & Santra, P.K. & Mahapatra, G.S., 2023. "Global stability and analysing the sensitivity of parameters of a multiple-susceptible population model of SARS-CoV-2 emphasising vaccination drive," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 741-766.
    3. Yongdong Shi & Rongsheng Huang & Hanwen Cui, 2021. "Prediction and Analysis of Tourist Management Strategy Based on the SEIR Model during the COVID-19 Period," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-12, October.

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