IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v85y2023ipas0301420723006463.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantile on Quantile Analysis of Natural resources-growth and geopolitical risk trilemma

Author

Listed:
  • Kong, Yan
  • Dong, Chuntong
  • Zhang, Yingyu

Abstract

The prevailing literature delivers contradictory evidence vis-à-vis the empirical association between economic growth and natural resources and geopolitical risk. Regarding, the current study re-evaluate the nexus between these variables in China throughout 1985M1-2022M4. Using the Bayer-Hanck combined cointegration test, the variables are found cointegrated. Due asymmetrical data distribution, this study employed the novel Quantile-on-Quantile regression and explores the optimistic impact of natural resources on economic growth. Hence, this study validates the resource-growth assumption in the country. On the other hand, the predicted results asserted that geopolitical risk has a mixed influence on economic growth. The positive and negative impacts are evident in medium and “lower and upper” quantiles, respectively. Further, this research acknowledged the two-way causal association between the study variables. Based on the empirics, this research recommends the sustainable extraction and use of natural resources and the stability of political and economic risks in the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Kong, Yan & Dong, Chuntong & Zhang, Yingyu, 2023. "Quantile on Quantile Analysis of Natural resources-growth and geopolitical risk trilemma," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:85:y:2023:i:pa:s0301420723006463
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103935
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420723006463
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103935?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pata, Ugur Korkut & Ertugrul, Hasan Murat, 2023. "Do the Kyoto Protocol, geopolitical risks, human capital and natural resources affect the sustainability limit? A new environmental approach based on the LCC hypothesis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    3. Kevin K. Tsui, 2011. "More Oil, Less Democracy: Evidence from Worldwide Crude Oil Discoveries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 89-115, March.
    4. Wang, Guoyu & Gu, Xiao & Shen, Xi & Uktamov, Khusniddin Fakhriddinovich & Ageli, Mohammed Moosa, 2023. "A dual risk perspective of China's resources market: Geopolitical risk and political risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Geng, Qianqian & Wang, Ying & Wang, Xiaoqing, 2023. "The impact of natural resource endowment and green finance on green economic efficiency in the context of COP26," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Çetin, Murat & Sarıgül, Sevgi Sümerli & Işık, Cem & Avcı, Pınar & Ahmad, Munir & Alvarado, Rafael, 2023. "The impact of natural resources, economic growth, savings, and current account balance on financial sector development: Theory and empirical evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    8. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Clark, Jeremy, 2017. "The evolution of the natural resource curse thesis: A critical literature survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-134.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Barış Soybilgen & Huseyin Kaya & Dincer Dedeoglu, 2019. "Evaluating the effect of geopolitical risks on the growth rates of emerging countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 717-725.
    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad & Ahad, Muhammad & Tahir, Iqbal, 2018. "Is natural resource abundance a stimulus for financial development in the USA?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 223-232.
    12. Cavalcanti, Tiago V. de V. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2011. "Growth, development and natural resources: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 305-318.
    13. Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
    14. Umer Shahzad & Magdalena Radulescu & Syed Rahim & Cem Isik & Zahid Yousaf & Stefan Alexandru Ionescu, 2021. "Do Environment-Related Policy Instruments and Technologies Facilitate Renewable Energy Generation? Exploring the Contextual Evidence from Developed Economies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-25, January.
    15. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    16. Sweidan, Osama D. & Elbargathi, Khadiga, 2022. "The effect of oil rent on economic development in Saudi Arabia: Comparing the role of globalization and the international geopolitical risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Du, Yuqiu & Wang, Wendi, 2023. "The role of green financing, agriculture development, geopolitical risk, and natural resource on environmental pollution in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    18. Aqib, Muhammad & Zaman, Khalid, 2023. "Greening the Workforce: The Power of Investing in Human Capital," MPRA Paper 116263, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Feb 2023.
    19. Lingui Qin & Syed Raheem & Muntasir Murshed & Xu Miao & Zeeshan Khan & Dervis Kirikkaleli, 2021. "Does financial inclusion limit carbon dioxide emissions? Analyzing the role of globalization and renewable electricity output," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 1138-1154, November.
    20. Khan, Syed Abdul Rehman & Ponce, Pablo & Yu, Zhang & Ponce, Katerine, 2022. "Investigating economic growth and natural resource dependence: An asymmetric approach in developed and developing economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    21. Srivastava, Mrinalini & Rao, Amar & Parihar, Jaya Singh & Chavriya, Shubham & Singh, Surendar, 2023. "What do the AI methods tell us about predicting price volatility of key natural resources: Evidence from hyperparameter tuning," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    22. Tan, Junlan & Su, Xiang & Wang, Rong, 2023. "The impact of natural resource dependence and green finance on green economic growth in the context of COP26," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    23. Gu, Xiao & Shen, Xi & Zhong, Xiangming & Wu, Tong & Rahim, Syed, 2023. "Natural resources and undesired productions of environmental outputs as green growth: EKC in the perspective of green finance and green growth in the G7 region," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    24. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, 2017. "Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 223-232.
    25. Olena STRYZHAK & Ramazan SAYAR & Yılmaz Onur ARI, 2022. "Geopolitical risks, GDP and tourism: an ARDL-ECM cointegration study on Ukraine," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 14(1), pages 85-113, May.
    26. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Aliyev, Ruslan & Taskin, Dilvin & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2023. "Oil rents and non-oil economic growth in CIS oil exporters. The role of financial development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    27. Lee, Chien-Chiang & He, Zhi-Wen, 2022. "Natural resources and green economic growth: An analysis based on heterogeneous growth paths," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    28. Zhao, Jing, 2023. "Time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resources prices: Evidence from the hybrid TVP-VAR model with large system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    29. Khan, Muhammad Tufail & Imran, Muhammad, 2023. "Unveiling the Carbon Footprint of Europe and Central Asia: Insights into the Impact of Key Factors on CO2 Emissions," MPRA Paper 116484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Feb 2023.
    30. Gideon Minua Kwaku Ampofo & Prosper Basommi Laari & Emmanuel Opoku Ware & Williams Shaw, 2023. "Further investigation of the total natural resource rents and economic growth nexus in resource-abundant sub-Saharan African countries," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(1), pages 97-121, January.
    31. Tabash, Mosab I. & Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter & Farooq, Umar, 2022. "Dynamic linkage between natural resources, economic complexity, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    32. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Shanshan & Long, Fang & Long, Litao, 2022. "Resources curse and sustainable development revisited: Evaluating the role of remittances for China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Gu, Xiao & Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Ali, Shahid & Khan, Zeeshan & Zhang, Changyong & Uktamov, Khusniddin Fakhriddinovich, 2023. "Nonlinear impact of natural resources and risk factors on the U.S. economic growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Guan, Jialin & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Bibi, Ayesha & Zhang, Weike, 2020. "Natural resources rents nexus with financial development in the presence of globalization: Is the “resource curse” exist or myth?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Wang, Guoyu & Gu, Xiao & Shen, Xi & Uktamov, Khusniddin Fakhriddinovich & Ageli, Mohammed Moosa, 2023. "A dual risk perspective of China's resources market: Geopolitical risk and political risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2020. "Are too many natural resources to blame for the shape of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in resource-based economies?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Lin, Shu & Yuan, Ying, 2023. "China's resources curse hypothesis: Evaluating the role of green innovation and green growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Chen, Zhiguo & Gao, Wei & Zafar, Quratulain & Dördüncü, Hazar, 2023. "Natural resources extraction and geopolitical risk: Examining oil resources extraction in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    8. Ramez Abubakr Badeeb & Jeremy Clark & Abey P. Philip, 2021. "The Nonlinear Effects of Oil Rent Dependence on Malaysian Manufacturing: Implications from Structural Change using a Markov-Regime Switching Model," Working Papers in Economics 21/11, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    9. Zhang, Yi & Zhang, Leilei & Yu, Hang & Tu, Yanhong, 2023. "Does Geopolitical risk drive natural resources extraction globally? A Case of Global," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Ali, Adnan & Ramakrishnan, Suresh & Faisal,, 2022. "Financial development and natural resources. Is there a stock market resource curse?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Ma, Yubo & Wang, Fei, 2023. "Dutch disease via remittances and natural resources: A perspective of global economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Gokmenoglu, Korhan K. & Rustamov, Bezhan, 2022. "The role of the natural resource abundance in the short and long run: The case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Muhammad Atif Khan & Muhammad Asif Khan & Kishwar Ali & József Popp & Judit Oláh, 2020. "Natural Resource Rent and Finance: The Moderation Role of Institutions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-23, May.
    14. Ewodo-Amougou, Marcel Rodrigue & Sapnken, Flavian Emmanuel & Mfetoum, Inoussah Moungnutou & Tamba, Jean Gaston, 2023. "Analysis of the relationship between oil rent and crude oil production in Cameroon: Evidence from ARDL and NARDL models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    15. Ma, Qiang & Liu, Xin & Wang, Wei-Guo & Xue, Jing, 2023. "Natural resources extraction and COP26 target: Evaluating the role of green finance," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lou, Runchi & Wang, Fuhao, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the sustainable utilization of natural resources: Evidence from developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    17. Zhang, Ziwei & Zhang, Chao, 2023. "Revisiting the importance of forest rents, oil rents, green growth in economic performance of China: Employing time series methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Pang, Deliang & Li, Kuangzhe & Tanasescu, Cristina & Kirikkaleli, Dervis, 2023. "Natural resources utilization, geopolitical risk and economic performance: A novel perspective from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    19. Xu, Yongfeng & Zhao, Xia, 2023. "Financial market risk, technology and natural resources nexus: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Chu, Amanda M.Y. & Lv, Zhihui & Wagner, Niklas F. & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2020. "Linear and nonlinear growth determinants: The case of Mongolia and its connection to China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:85:y:2023:i:pa:s0301420723006463. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.