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The human life vs economic loss dilemma: Relation between death rate and the output rate in Europe during the Covid 19 pandemic

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  • Bollino, Carlo Andrea

Abstract

I analyze the human life-economic loss dilemma (HELD) trade-off between saving lives ad saving economic activities during the emergency period of Covid 19 pandemic. A new concept labeled HELD Curve, not addressed in the literature so far, is proposed to model the inverse non-linear relation between loss of economic activity and death rates during the Covid 19 Pandemic in Europe, due to the lockdown policy. Econometric estimation supports this view offering to policymakers a tool to assess the impact of continuing the lockdown. The HELD curve elasticity implies a trade-off of 218 thousand EURO per saved human life.

Suggested Citation

  • Bollino, Carlo Andrea, 2023. "The human life vs economic loss dilemma: Relation between death rate and the output rate in Europe during the Covid 19 pandemic," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 377-387.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:45:y:2023:i:2:p:377-387
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.04.003
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    Keywords

    Human life-economic loss dilemma HELD; Covid-19 pandemic; Economic loss; Human death; Trade-off; EU lockdown;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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