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Asymptotically optimal pointwise and minimax change-point detection for general stochastic models with a composite post-change hypothesis

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  • Pergamenchtchikov, Serguei
  • Tartakovsky, Alexander G.

Abstract

A weighted Shiryaev–Roberts change detection procedure is shown to approximately minimize the expected delay to detection as well as higher moments of the detection delay among all change-point detection procedures with the given low maximal local probability of a false alarm within a window of a fixed length in pointwise and minimax settings for general non-i.i.d. data models and for the composite post-change hypothesis when the post-change parameter is unknown. We establish very general conditions for models under which the weighted Shiryaev–Roberts procedure is asymptotically optimal. These conditions are formulated in terms of the rate of convergence in the strong law of large numbers for the log-likelihood ratios between the “change” and “no-change” hypotheses, and we also provide sufficient conditions for a large class of ergodic Markov processes. Examples related to multivariate Markov models where these conditions hold are given.

Suggested Citation

  • Pergamenchtchikov, Serguei & Tartakovsky, Alexander G., 2019. "Asymptotically optimal pointwise and minimax change-point detection for general stochastic models with a composite post-change hypothesis," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:174:y:2019:i:c:s0047259x19301733
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2019.104541
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Serguei Pergamenchtchikov & Alexander G. Tartakovsky, 2018. "Asymptotically optimal pointwise and minimax quickest change-point detection for dependent data," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 217-259, April.
    2. Paul D. Feigin & Richard L. Tweedie, 1985. "Random Coefficient Autoregressive Processes:A Markov Chain Analysis Of Stationarity And Finiteness Of Moments," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 1-14, January.
    3. Galtchouk, L. & Pergamenshchikov, S., 2013. "Uniform concentration inequality for ergodic diffusion processes observed at discrete times," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 91-109.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bouzebda, Salim & Ferfache, Anouar Abdeldjaoued, 2023. "Asymptotic properties of semiparametric M-estimators with multiple change points," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 609(C).
    2. Pergamenchtchikov, Serguei M. & Tartakovsky, Alexander G. & Spivak, Valentin S., 2022. "Minimax and pointwise sequential changepoint detection and identification for general stochastic models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Savas Dayanik & Kazutoshi Yamazaki, 2022. "Detection and identification of changes of hidden Markov chains: asymptotic theory," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 261-301, July.

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